Friday, May 30, 2014

May 29, 2014

So these are the Club of Rome predictions (via Dmitry Orlov):

I am as much of a collapse porn aficionado as the next guy, but if these predictions are an important component of the collapse story, the script needs to be rewritten. If you look at the graphs carefully, the trend predictions could have been done by a layman simply through visual inspection of the data (aka, take a ruler and just extend the lines), and you wouldn't have been too far off the mark for any of the parameters (in fact, your prediction would've been more accurate vis-a-vis food per capita). We have not reached the years corresponding to the predicted peaks yet (except maybe for per capita industrial output), so we need to go a bit easy on the hosannahs for the accuracy of the predictions so far.