Syria to be accused of Hariri assassination

A news item in The Guardian says that "UN investigators will next month directly implicate the Syrian government in the assassination of Rafik Hariri, the former Lebanese prime minister". There are no indications at present as to how high up the Syrian regime the investigation will reach.

My two cents (assuming that Syria is really behind the assassination):

1. The probability that the assassination of such a high-level figure was carried out by the Syrians without the knowledge and approval of Bashar Assad is very low. Unless, of course, Assad is not really in charge of things.


2. The probability that there exists evidence that can implicate Assad is even lower.

As usual, some mid-level players will take the fall. The masterminds will escape.